Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.016717 0.018931 0.021331 0.024127 0.027296 0.030778 0.034895
2025-08-10 0.013082 0.016094 0.019641 0.024129 0.029662 0.036269 0.044771
2025-08-17 0.010864 0.014144 0.018230 0.023701 0.030847 0.039884 0.052210
2025-08-24 0.009581 0.013065 0.017610 0.023985 0.032717 0.044292 0.060858
2025-08-31 0.008447 0.011988 0.016796 0.023816 0.033836 0.047672 0.068317
2025-09-07 0.007766 0.011424 0.016571 0.024363 0.035905 0.052440 0.078061
2025-09-14 0.006827 0.010373 0.015527 0.023588 0.035935 0.054223 0.083545
2025-09-21 0.006163 0.009649 0.014870 0.023287 0.036586 0.056905 0.090538
2025-09-28 0.005498 0.008851 0.014014 0.022575 0.036500 0.058400 0.095740
2025-10-05 0.005276 0.008723 0.014175 0.023465 0.039000 0.064121 0.108197
2025-10-12 0.005008 0.008491 0.014141 0.024018 0.040976 0.069129 0.119884
2025-10-19 0.004786 0.008312 0.014172 0.024669 0.043151 0.074618 0.132839
2025-10-26 0.004423 0.007867 0.013728 0.024485 0.043906 0.077808 0.142175
2025-11-02 0.004121 0.007503 0.013394 0.024464 0.044945 0.081581 0.152921
2025-11-09 0.003788 0.007051 0.012862 0.024031 0.045183 0.083913 0.161175
2025-11-16 0.003593 0.006834 0.012730 0.024319 0.046770 0.088830 0.174739
2025-11-23 0.003353 0.006510 0.012375 0.024148 0.047459 0.092096 0.185363
2025-11-30 0.003227 0.006394 0.012398 0.024703 0.049597 0.098304 0.202378
2025-12-07 0.002950 0.005957 0.011770 0.023917 0.048993 0.099065 0.208337
2025-12-14 0.002753 0.005665 0.011398 0.023612 0.049331 0.101719 0.218439
2025-12-21 0.002528 0.005297 0.010847 0.022890 0.048739 0.102411 0.224401
2025-12-28 0.002487 0.005307 0.011063 0.023792 0.051648 0.110631 0.247451
2026-01-04 0.002414 0.005242 0.011119 0.024353 0.053865 0.117550 0.268222